La Alegría

Latest from the blogClosing the diary: second in the world, and graciasThe diary ends where the tournament ends: a silver medal, a final that needed extra time and a single goal to settle, and a team with an uncertain December ahead. One last entry to say thank you, and to write down what deserves remembering.Read the blog →

Just want the storyWhat happened, what people claim, and what holds up. No math.Here for the statsModels, probabilities, Monte Carlo sims and Bayes.

The rumors? Out of the way first.

Argentinian, Messi my GOAT. Heard the gossip (favoritism, an FBI probe, corruption), so I did the homework.

I did the homework: a timeline and honest odds on each hypothesis. Then back to the football.

The story →The probabilities →

Explore the analysis

The StoryWhat actually happened, as a timeline.BlogOne post per update, predictions graded.Could It Be Done?Could a fix even be pulled off? A simulator.The ProbabilitiesFour hypotheses, and a Bayesian playground.Who Wins?The models, the market, and a Monte Carlo.Ask the ResearchChat with the compiled research.Sources & Fine PrintEvery source, plus all the fine print.

I'm Argentinian and I want us to win. Read accordingly. All the fine print here.

🇦🇷 I did the homework to enjoy the tournament more, not less, and it worked to the last whistle. The gossip got its fair hearing and the allegations stayed allegations; the football got the full-throated cheer. It ended one goal short of the fourth star, in extra time, against the best defense a World Cup has seen. Second in the world, head high: gracias, muchachos. 🇦🇷

Not our year. Gracias, muchachos.

The rumors? Out of the way first.

Explore the analysis