The Log

The initial analysis, built July 12 with the quarterfinals complete and the semifinals still to play.

This is the first pass. The bracket sits at pre-semifinals: France v Spain and England v Argentina are still to be played, so every title number here is a genuine forecast, not hindsight.

What Phase 0 verification changed from the source draft: Opta was refreshed post-quarterfinals (France 34.0%, Spain 23.4%, England 21.9%, Argentina 20.6% to win it); Nate Silver's per-team numbers turned out to be paywalled, so I cite his method and the public market instead of inventing a figure; the 'most penalties in tournament history' superlative was softened to 'most in recent World Cups'; and an unverifiable '23M views' figure was dropped entirely.

On the money story: it's real and traceable to La Nación and the Miami Herald, but several specifics (the $260M/$57M split, the named prosecutors) are single-sourced, so they're attributed rather than asserted, and the private individuals at the Florida company are referred to by role, not name.

My headline forecast for the scorecard above: the models say France; my heart says Argentina. When the semifinals are played, I'll grade this run and archive it.